---
title: "Your Break-Even Is a Pie Count, Not a Percentage. On Our Model Shop, It's About 46 Large Pizzas a Day."
description: "The average independent pizzeria sells about $440,000 a year and the typical limited-service shop keeps 4% of it. Where that 4% comes from is the pies you sell after break-even. Here's a labeled worked example built from published rents, wages, box prices and card-fee schedules, and the four-line method to run it on your own shop."
canonical_url: https://ovenscars.com/articles/pizza-shop-break-even/
author: "Oven Scars Editorial"
publisher: "Oven Scars"
section: "Strategy & Growth"
date_published: 2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z
tags: ["break-even", "unit-economics", "fixed-costs", "margin"]
word_count: 1092
reading_time_minutes: 8
license: "CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 — cite as \"Oven Scars\" and link the canonical URL"
---

# Your Break-Even Is a Pie Count, Not a Percentage. On Our Model Shop, It's About 46 Large Pizzas a Day.

*The average independent pizzeria sells about $440,000 a year and the typical limited-service shop keeps 4% of it. Where that 4% comes from is the pies you sell after break-even. Here's a labeled worked example built from published rents, wages, box prices and card-fee schedules, and the four-line method to run it on your own shop.*

**Operator takeaway:** Add up last month's fixed costs, including your minimum crew and any salaried pay. Then take your average ticket and subtract its food, packaging, card fee and the extra hourly labor it takes. Divide the first number by the second, then by the days you were open. Compare that daily ticket count with your real average for the month. If the gap is under 10 tickets a day, fix food cost or the fixed crew before you spend a dollar on marketing.

A pizza shop breaks even when the money each pie keeps, after food, box, card fee and the extra labor it takes, adds up to the month's fixed costs. In our worked illustration of a 1,500-square-foot shop, that's about $15,500 a month in fixed costs and about 46 large pies a day. For the bigger question, how much a pizza shop makes, the average independent sells [a little over $440,000 a year](https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/on-the-line/how-much-do-pizza-shops-make), based on PMQ data reported by Toast. The National Restaurant Association found the median limited-service restaurant kept [4.0% of sales before taxes in 2024](https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/analysis-commentary/new-association-report-helps-operators-gauge-their-restaurant-performance/). That 4% is what's left after the break-even pies are sold.

Everything below is an illustration, not a benchmark. The inputs are published. The shop is ours.

## Fixed costs are the bills that come whether you sell a pie or not

**Rent.** CBRE's national average retail asking rent was [$24.79 per square foot a year in Q2 2026](https://mktgdocs.cbre.com/2299/4f31b682-cf01-4e1a-a559-8583e519d83f-692872684/Q2_2026_U.S._Retail_Market_Rep.pdf). On 1,500 square feet, that's about $3,100 a month before taxes and common-area charges.

**Utilities.** The federal energy survey of commercial buildings put food service energy spending at [$5.14 per square foot in 2018](https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/ce/pdf/c4.pdf). On our space, it's about $640 a month.

**Insurance.** Insureon's restaurant customers pay a median [$337 a month for a business owner's policy and $118 for workers' comp](https://www.insureon.com/food-business-insurance/restaurants/cost). A business owner's policy bundles property and liability coverage. Most of them have fewer than five employees. Call it $455.

**Software, trash and music licensing.** About $290 a month, from [our line-by-line monthly cost breakdown](/articles/pizza-shop-monthly-operating-costs/).

**The crew you need just to open.** A shop can't open with nobody on, so a minimum crew is a fixed cost. The BLS puts the median food service manager in restaurants at [$65,060 a year](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/food-service-managers.htm). Add about 11% for payroll taxes and insurance, [using our labor math](/articles/where-the-labor-line-breaks/), and that's about $6,000 a month. Put one hourly crew member on for all 70 open hours a week, beside the manager or beside you on the manager's day off, at the BLS median of [$15.00 for fast food and counter workers](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/food-preparation-and-serving/food-and-beverage-serving-and-related-workers.htm), and that's about $5,050 more.

Total: about $15,550 a month.

## Contribution margin is what one pie leaves behind

**Price.** Slice, which runs an ordering platform for independents, reports average large cheese prices from [$15.73 in the West South Central states to $20.43 in the Pacific region](https://slice.com/blog/rising-cheese-pizza-costs/). We'll use $18.

**Food.** Toast says pizzerias typically run [about 20% of revenue in cost of goods: a $10 pizza should cost about $2 to make](https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/on-the-line/how-much-do-pizza-shops-make). That's $3.60 on our pie. A Pizza Today columnist pricing pies for a mobile pizzeria aimed to keep [all-in food costs under 30%](https://pizzatoday.com/news/launching-a-mobile-pizzeria-pricing-pizzas-part-11/149689/). At 30%, it's $5.40.

**Box.** A 16-inch kraft box lists at [$26.99 for 50 at WebstaurantStore, about 54 cents each, or 41 cents at 10 or more bundles](https://www.webstaurantstore.com/16-x-16-x-1-3-4-kraft-corrugated-pizza-box-case/245CPB16GRN.html). We use 54.

**Card fee.** Square's published rate is [2.6% plus 15 cents in person and 2.9% plus 30 cents online](https://squareup.com/payments/our-fees). On $18, that's about 62 cents at the counter and 82 cents online. We'll assume every pie goes on a card at the counter.

**Extra labor.** This is the line nobody publishes. We'll assume each added crew hour, loaded, gets about eight more pies out the door. That's about $2 a pie, and the eight is our guess. Check yours against [your prime cost](/pizzeria-playbook/prime-cost/).

That leaves about $11.24 a pie at 20% food, or $9.44 at 30%.

**Average independent sales:** [about $440,000 a year](https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/on-the-line/how-much-do-pizza-shops-make) (PMQ via Toast) · **Median pre-tax income, limited service:** [4.0% of sales](https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/analysis-commentary/new-association-report-helps-operators-gauge-their-restaurant-performance/) (NRA, 2024) · **Retail asking rent:** [$24.79/sq. ft./yr](https://mktgdocs.cbre.com/2299/4f31b682-cf01-4e1a-a559-8583e519d83f-692872684/Q2_2026_U.S._Retail_Market_Rep.pdf) (CBRE, Q2 2026) · **Large cheese, regional averages:** [$15.73 to $20.43](https://slice.com/blog/rising-cheese-pizza-costs/) (Slice) · **16-inch box:** [41 to 54 cents](https://www.webstaurantstore.com/16-x-16-x-1-3-4-kraft-corrugated-pizza-box-case/245CPB16GRN.html) · **Square in person:** [2.6% + 15¢](https://squareup.com/payments/our-fees)

## The answer: about 46 pies a day, or 54 if food runs 30%

Divide $15,550 by $11.24 and you need about 1,380 pies a month, or about 46 a day over an average 30.4-day month. At 30% food, it's about 1,650 a month, or 54 a day. Ten points of food cost moves break-even by eight pies a day, every day.

$440,000 a year is about $1,205 a day, or about 67 of our $18 pies. On paper, that's 21 pies a day above break-even and a healthy profit. The NRA says the typical limited-service restaurant keeps 4%. The difference is everything our model leaves out: marketplace commissions on delivery orders, repairs, marketing, the accountant, loan payments, waste and comps. That's why [what owners actually take home](/articles/how-much-pizza-shop-owners-make/) is smaller than a break-even sheet suggests.

Break-even isn't a percentage you read off the P&L. It's a number of pies you have to sell before the shop starts working for you.

## Run it on your own shop in four lines

**1. Total your fixed month.** Include the minimum crew and every salaried paycheck, yours too if you'd have to hire someone to replace you.

**2. Use your average ticket, not one pie.** You sell wings and drinks too. Average ticket is the honest unit.

**3. Subtract what each ticket costs to sell.** Food at your real food cost, packaging, your actual card rate from the statement, and the extra hourly labor. If a ticket comes in through a marketplace, take the commission off too.

**4. Divide, then divide again.** Fixed costs divided by what each ticket keeps is your monthly break-even. Divide that by the days you're open. The gap between that number and your real daily tickets is your safety margin. When it's thin, one rainy week or one cheese spike wipes it out.

Add up last month's fixed costs, including your minimum crew and any salaried pay. Then take your average ticket and subtract its food, packaging, card fee and the extra hourly labor it takes. Divide the first number by the second, then by the days you were open. Compare that daily ticket count with your real average for the month. If the gap is under 10 tickets a day, fix food cost or the fixed crew before you spend a dollar on marketing.

The limitation: fixed costs only stay fixed up to a point. Our model has two people on every open hour. Past a certain volume you add a second cook on Friday or a driver at 5 p.m., and that labor becomes fixed for the night. So real break-even is a staircase, not a line. Each new person you schedule resets the pie count that shift has to sell. Run the math once for a slow weekday crew and once for your Friday crew, and you'll see which nights are carrying the week.

## Common questions

### How many pizzas a day does a pizza shop need to sell to break even?

It depends on your fixed costs and what each pie keeps. In our worked example, with about $15,500 a month in fixed costs and an $18 large pie, it's about 46 a day. If food cost runs 30% instead of 20%, it's about 54. That's an illustration, so run your own numbers.

### How much does a pizza shop make a year?

The average independent sells about $440,000 a year, per PMQ data reported by Toast. The National Restaurant Association says the typical counter-service shop keeps about 4% before taxes. On $440,000, that's about $17,600.

### What are a pizza shop's monthly fixed expenses?

Rent, insurance, utilities, software and the crew you need just to open the doors. In our example, a 1,500-square-foot shop at the national average retail rent pays about $3,100 a month in rent. A salaried manager runs about $6,000 more, and one hourly crew member beside them for 70 open hours a week about $5,050.

## Sources cited

- https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/on-the-line/how-much-do-pizza-shops-make
- https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/analysis-commentary/new-association-report-helps-operators-gauge-their-restaurant-performance/
- https://mktgdocs.cbre.com/2299/4f31b682-cf01-4e1a-a559-8583e519d83f-692872684/Q2_2026_U.S._Retail_Market_Rep.pdf
- https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/2018/ce/pdf/c4.pdf
- https://www.insureon.com/food-business-insurance/restaurants/cost
- https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/food-service-managers.htm
- https://www.bls.gov/ooh/food-preparation-and-serving/food-and-beverage-serving-and-related-workers.htm
- https://slice.com/blog/rising-cheese-pizza-costs/
- https://pizzatoday.com/news/launching-a-mobile-pizzeria-pricing-pizzas-part-11/149689/
- https://www.webstaurantstore.com/16-x-16-x-1-3-4-kraft-corrugated-pizza-box-case/245CPB16GRN.html
- https://squareup.com/payments/our-fees

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